God plays dice

Dow 36,000 is attainable again, within three to five years, because the Dow has gone up from 6547 to 14397 in four years; that means a growth rate of 21.54% per year (the fourth root of 14397/6597), and growth at that rate for five years puts the Dow at 38188.

This is an astounding feat of extrapolation. I wonder – the Dow last peaked at 14164 on October 9, 2007. By March 9, 2009 it was at 6547. Would Hassett and Glassman seriously have suggested, four years ago today, that it should drop by more than half in every seventeen-month period — putting it at 741 today?

I think not.

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